I suggested last week that, between now and the beginning of summer, President Donald Trump will declare victory in Iran, end most of the military operations, and move on to his next manufactured crisis. Trump could thus claim another victory and not worry about that nasty little war handing Democrats the midterms. (Other things might yet hand the Democrats the midterms, but not the war.)
We thus know in advance that the war will end in victory for us, and we know when it will end, and who cares about Iran, anyway?
On reflection, there are two flies in this ointment.
First, there’s the enriched uranium fly. Iran possesses about 900 pounds of enriched uranium, which could be made into about 10 nuclear weapons.
What do you do about that stuff when you declare that the war is over and our troops are coming home? If the mullahs manage to hold power in Iran, the continued existence of enriched uranium means that Iran would remain able to manufacture nukes pretty quickly. Why did we go to war anyway?
And if Iran collapses into sectarian violence or a failed state, the enriched uranium becomes yet more threatening.
Doesn’t the U.S. have to do something about the enriched uranium?
You could bomb it, I suppose, which would result in a contaminated conventional bomb site (not a nuclear explosion), but you wouldn’t be sure that you’d eliminated the entire stockpile.
You could decide to engage U.S. (or Israeli) ground troops in Iran, fighting their way to Isfahan, or Fordow, or Natanz, or wherever the uranium might be today. But the Israelis might decline to accept this task, and this is the sort of American commitment that Trump doesn’t want to make (and for which he would pay a high political price).
Or you could do a Venezuela-style midnight raid, sending in the Delta Force to extract the 900 pounds of uranium under cover of darkness. But the Iranians know that this type of raid is likely, expect it to happen within the next few weeks or months, and are surely prepared for it. That’s not the kind of Delta Force action that I’d like to be involved in (for reasons beyond even the obvious ones of my competence, age, and cowardice).
Hmmm. …
Maybe Trump has to negotiate after all.
The second fly in the Iranian ointment is the Strait of Hormuz.
Suppose Trump announces that the United States has won and the war is over.
Suppose the Iranians say, “Thank you very much. We’re pleased to hear that. But we’re still not letting oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Global gas prices are high, and they’re heading higher.”
Protecting traffic through the Strait over Iran’s objection would be both terribly expensive and only partially effective. Even with American escorts, the near-certainty that Iran would occasionally destroy ships passing through the Strait would keep the cost of insuring shipments high and the number of shipments low.
Given the location of the Strait, and how narrow it is, the only way to eliminate the Iranian threat (without Iran’s acquiescence) may be to send in ground troops to protect the shores surrounding the Strait.
Again, that’s precisely the kind of war that Trump doesn’t want.
Hmmm. …
Maybe Trump has to negotiate with the Iranians after all.
I don’t see any “unconditional surrender” by Iran any time soon.
And the possibility of Trump declaring victory and bringing home the troops is a little trickier than I originally thought.
Instead, the parties may have to agree to a ceasefire and then negotiate about what Iran would do to safeguard the enriched uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States easing sanctions or doing something else to help Iran.
Trump will surely declare victory, no matter the outcome.
But isn’t he going to look like a loser at the end of this mess?
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.
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